By
Anthony
Kusich
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My Final 2004 Predictions
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Main Page
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BEST PICTURE
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FINAL PREDICTIONS
Sideways
Ray
The Aviator
Million Dollar Baby
Finding Neverland
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ACTUAL NOMINEES
TBA
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BEST DIRECTOR
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FINAL PREDICTIONS
Alexander Payne, Sideways
Taylor Hackford, Ray
Martin Scorsese, The Aviator
Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby
Marc Forster, Finding Neverland
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ACTUAL NOMINEES
TBA
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BEST ACTOR
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FINAL PREDICTIONS
Paul Giamatti, Sideways
Jamie Foxx, Ray
Johnny Depp, Finding Neverland
Don Cheadle, Hotel Rwanda
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Aviator
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ACTUAL NOMINEES
TBA
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BEST ACTRESS
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FINAL PREDICTIONS
Annette Bening, Being Julia
Kate Winslet, Eternal Sunshine
Catalina Moreno, Maria Full of Grace
Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby
Imelda Staunton, Vera Drake
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ACTUAL NOMINEES
TBA
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BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
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FINAL PREDICTIONS
Thomas Haden Church, Sideways
Jamie Foxx, Collateral
Clive Owen, Closer
Morgan Freeman, Million Dollar Baby
David Carradine, Kill Bill Vol. II
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ACTUAL NOMINEES
TBA
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BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
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FINAL PREDICTIONS
Virginia Madsen, Sideways
Kate Winslet, Finding Neverland
Natalie Portman, Closer
Cate Blanchett, The Aviator
Laura Linney, Kinsey
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ACTUAL NOMINEES
TBA
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BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
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FINAL PREDICTIONS
Bill Condon, Kinsey
Charlie Kaufman, Eternal Sunshine
John Logan, The Aviator
Brad Bird, The Incredibles
K. Pearson & T. George, Hotel Rwanda
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ACTUAL NOMINEES
TBA
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BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
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FINAL PREDICTIONS
A. Payne & J. Taylor, Sideways
Paul Haggis, Million Dollar Baby
David Magee, Finding Neverland
Linklater & Hawke & Delpy, Before Sunset
Jose Rivera, The Motorcycle Diaries
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ACTUAL NOMINEES
TBA
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FINAL PREDICTIONS
Collateral
Ray
House of Flying Daggers
The Aviator
The Passion of the Christ
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ACTUAL NOMINEES
TBA
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FINAL PREDICTIONS
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Million Dollar Baby
The Aviator
Spider-Man 2
Sideways
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ACTUAL NOMINEES
TBA
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FINAL PREDICTIONS
House of Flying Daggers
The Terminal
Lemony Snicket...
The Aviator
Finding Neverland
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ACTUAL NOMINEES
TBA
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FINAL PREDICTIONS
The Passion of the Christ
The Terminal
Finding Neverland
The Incredibles
Sideways
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ACTUAL NOMINEES
TBA
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FINAL PREDICTIONS
The Aviator
House of Flying Daggers
De-Lovely
Ray
Phantom of the Opera
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ACTUAL NOMINEES
TBA
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FINAL PREDICTIONS
'Learn to Be Lonely' -- Phantom of the Opera
'A Million Voices' -- Hotel Rwanda
'Old Habits Die Hard' -- Alfie
'Believe' -- The Polar Express
'Accidentally in Love' -- Shrek 2
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ACTUAL NOMINEES
TBA
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FINAL PREDICTIONS
I, Robot
Sky Captain & the World of Tomorrow
Ray
Million Dollar Baby
Spider-Man 2
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ACTUAL NOMINEES
TBA
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FINAL PREDICTIONS
The Incredibles
The Day After Tomorrow
Spider-Man 2
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ACTUAL NOMINEES
TBA
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FINAL PREDICTIONS
The Day After Tomorrow
Sky Captain & the World of Tomorrow
Spider-Man 2
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ACTUAL NOMINEES
TBA
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FINAL PREDICTIONS
Lemony Snicket...
The Passion of the Christ
The Aviator
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ACTUAL NOMINEES
TBA
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FINAL PREDICTIONS
Shrek 2
The Incredibles
The Polar Express
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ACTUAL NOMINEES
TBA
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FINAL PREDICTIONS
China -- House of Flying Daggers
Spain -- The Sea Inside
Germany -- Downfall
France -- Les Choristes
Denmark -- The Five Obstructions
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ACTUAL NOMINEES
TBA
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FINAL PREDICTIONS
Super Size Me
The Story of the Weeping Camel
Born Into Brothels
Touching the Void
In the Realms of the Unreal
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ACTUAL NOMINEES
TBA
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TALLY OF NOMINATIONS
The Aviator
Sideways
Million Dollar Baby, Finding Neverland
Ray
Spider-Man 2, House of Flying Daggers,
The Incredibles
Eternal Sunshine, The Passion of the Christ,
Hotel Rwanda
Sky Captain, Collateral, Closer, Kinsey,
The Polar Express, Shrek 2, The Terminal,
Day After Tomorrow, Phantom of the Opera,
Lemony Snicket
Vera Drake, Maria Full of Grace, I, Robot,
Kill Bill Vol. II, Before Sunset, Being Julia,
Motorcycle Diaries, De-Lovely, Downfall,
The Sea Inside, Choristes, Five Obstructions,
Super Size Me, In the Realms of the Unreal,
Born Into Brothels, Touching the Void,
Story of the Weeping Camel, Alfie
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RESULTS
My score - xx/97
Which is - xx%
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1
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One of the most boring contests in years,
but here's who will be nominated -- and why:
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Unlike in some years, when there are up to 7 or 8 contenders competing for 5 slots, the guilds and
other precursor awards have focused completely on the 5 films below. There is practically no
other movie that could sneak in, with only "Hotel Rwanda" having a very outside chance. (Its
recent rise in buzz mostly peaked after the Oscar voters' ballots were mailed in.) Some may cross
their fingers for "Eternal Sunshine" or even "The Incredibles," but the quintet below is pretty solid.
The last time the Best Picture and Best Director nominees matched up 5-for-5 was in 1981. It's a
completely rare occurence, but again, there's little chance of things working any other way. Many
are predicting Zhang Yimou gets nominated for "House of Flying Daggers," but why would that be?
He has his own category (Best Foreign Film) and has received virtually no attention from the major
precursors. Michel Gondry and Michael Mann is just more wishful thinking.
Aside from the five men below, Javier Bardem ("The Sea Inside") and Liam Neeson ("Kisney") are
also likely contenders. But it's tough to see who they'd replace. Paul Giamatti is starring in one of
the Best Picture frontrunners, Don Cheadle is starring in a very socially important film, and Johnny
Depp is starring in a movie that's gotten major attention from every precursor. In this toughest of
categories, however, everyone but Jamie Foxx is vulnerable.
I'd like to compare this race to 1994's, when the 5 nominees were all from films that most people
hadn't seen ("Blue Sky," "Tom and Viv") or were simply big names in supposed "prestige" pictures
("Nell," "Little Women," "The Client"). The main similarity is that no one is a frontrunner. Moreno
is too "new" to win, Bening and Staunton were in films that were barely a blip at the box office,
Winslet's picture has been unjustly shunned this award season, and Swank has won too recently.
Freddie Highmore, who put the "Peter" in "Peter Pan," is the only surprise I can see popping up
here. Most vulernable are David Carradine (with only a Golden Globe nod keeping him alive) and
Clive Owen (whose film was dissed by SAG and the WGA). Though his performance was great,
we all know Jamie Foxx does not belong in this category. But the PR push seems to be full-blast
for him in any performance this year.
I can't get Sophie Okonedo out of my mind. In 2001, when the SAG noms threw a wrench in this
category, many people shifted their predictions (Winslet, Mirren, Smith, Connelly, Tomei) to reflect
some supposed "late-breakers." So now that SAG has put Okonedo (and to a lesser extent, Cloris
Leachman) back into the mix, who's to say who's safe and who's not? But I'm betting that Oscar
voters will still prefer the weepy, dying Winslet in the indomitable "Finding Neverland."
Both screenplay categories have a lot of holes this year, and the WGA awards -- with nominees like
"Garden State" -- did nothing to clarify some frontrunners. But since "Hotel Rwanda" has been
gaining steam in the past few weeks, I bet enough Academy voters will mark it on their ballots.
And despite the droop in support for "Kinsey," voters will want to find somewhere to honor it -- and
Best Original Screenplay seems like the only place.
I'll regret it after nominations are announced, but I'm supplanting "Closer" with "Before Sunset."
Both are hardly adaptations -- "Closer" seemed directly lifted from the stage play, while "Before
Sunset" was based on characters from another movie -- but the latter has a small modicum of
support from critics and cinephiles. The others are fairly assured nominations, though I wouldn't
be surprised to see the blah "Motorcycle Diaries" omitted.
*Click on a category heading to go to that page.
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