finalpredictions2004

The Final Predictions

WHO WILL WIN

Clearly "The Return of the King" is the heavy favorite -- and with good reason. With major wins from
the PGA, DGA, Golden Globes, critics, and SAG, there's no chance it'll go home empty-handed.

IF I PICKED

Sans "Seabiscuit," these are all worthy choices -- the remaining four either made my top 10 list or
factored heavily into my own personal picks for the year. But if I had to choose one over the others,
there'd be no question: "Lost in Translation." Mixing deft writing with two of the most nuanced
performances of the year, Sofia Coppola turned out a classic(al) sophomore effort.

BEST DIRECTOR

Sofia Coppola, "Lost in Translation"
Clint Eastwood, "Mystic River"
Peter Weir, "Master & Commander"
Fernando Meirelles, "City of God"
Peter Jackson, "The Return of the King"

WHO WILL WIN

IF I PICKED

I would have to agree that Peter Jackson does indeed deserve this. Though it's a little sad that four-time
nominee Weir will again go home empty-handed, that Coppola won't be the first female helmer to win,
that Eastwood won't have a matching pair of trophies, and that Meirelles won't be giving foreign films a
boost, Jackson has made cinema history with his sweeping epic trilogy.

BEST ACTOR

Bill Murray, "Lost in Translation"
Sean Penn, "Mystic River"
Johnny Depp, "Pirates of the Caribbean"
Jude Law, "Cold Mountain"
Ben Kinglsey, "House of Sand & Fog"

WHO WILL WIN

IF I PICKED

In my opinion, Bill Murray deserves this award in a close race over both Sean Penn and Johnny Depp.
(Which is surprising since they're all closely locked in for the Oscar as well.) On a side note, few that I
recommended "Lost in Translation" to liked it as much as I did; my grandfather left halfway through, my
dad called it "cute...I guess," and a group of friends thought it was as boring as staring at a blank wall.

BEST ACTRESS

Charlize Theron, "Monster"
Diane Keaton, "Something's Gotta Give"
Samantha Morton, "In America"
Naomi Watts, "21 Grams"
Keisha Castle-Hughes, "Whale Rider"

WHO WILL WIN

IF I PICKED

It seems too perfect to admit after all her accolades, but Theron did indeed give the best performance of
the year in this category. Seeing "Monster" for a second time, the actress' complete immersion into the
role -- facial ticks, jerky limbs, Florida twang, scornful eyes, measured pain -- was all the more
impressive.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Benicio Del Toro, "21 Grams"
Alec Baldwin, "The Cooler"
Djimon Hounsou, "In America"
Ken Watanabe, "The Last Samurai"
Tim Robbins, "Mystic River"

WHO WILL WIN

IF I PICKED

Tim Robbins definitely stands out among this bunch. But Baldwin, Hounsou, and Watanabe were nothing
special. Solid, just not Oscarworthy. I'm sure I'm the minority, but this has to be the weakest Best
Supporting Actor lineup since 1996's fivesome of Cuba Gooding Jr (too hyper), William H. Macy (in the
wrong category), Ed Norton (wrong movie), James Woods (huh?), and Armin Mueller-Stahl (just okay).

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Holly Hunter, "Thirteen"
Shohreh Aghdashloo, "House of Sand & Fog"
Patricia Clarkson, "Pieces of April"
Renee Zellweger, "Cold Mountain"
Marcia Gay Harden, "Mystic River"

WHO WILL WIN

Hands down, it's Patricia Clarkson's year. Though many feel this wasn't her best film of 2003...hey, she
didn't control the Oscar campaigns. Her work in "Pieces of April" was witty, sharp, and just the right
amount of sentimental. But re-visiting Holly Hunter's strong work upon seeing "Thirteen" again, I can't
help but wish that the actual Oscar race between these women was closer than it really is.

IF I PICKED

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

"In America"
"Lost in Translation"
"Finding Nemo"
"Dirty Pretty Things"
"The Barbarian Invasions"

WHO WILL WIN

IF I PICKED

"Lost in Translation" is the definiton of a "best" original screenplay. It put two characters that we grew
to love in situations that we could relate to and find comfort and humor in. Plus, it came straight from
Sofia Coppola's personal experience -- a common theme in this category this year. Few screenplays in
2003 came close to its warmth.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

"The Return of the King"
"American Splendor"
"City of God"
"Seabiscuit"
"Mystic River"

WHO WILL WIN

IF I PICKED

"American Splendor" gets my vote here, in a tough call over the chiseled, Shakespearean work of
"Mystic River." "Splendor" is perhaps the year's most original adapted screenplay, moving between
genres and tones effortlessly while never confusing the audience or pandering to conventional modes of
comedy and drama. It's a worthy contender.

BEST SOUND EDITING

ANIMATED FEATURE

This is a no-brainer, although one can't
complain after the victory of "Spirited
Away" last year.

The deft skill of mixing boat ambience
with gunfire will secure this award for
"Master & Commander."

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

BEST EDITING

Eduardo Serra, "Girl With a Pearl Earring"
Cesar Charlone, "City of God"
John Seale, "Cold Mountain"
John Schwartzman, "Seabiscuit"
Russell Boyd, "Master & Commander"

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

BEST SONG

D. Van Straalen, "Girl With a Pearl Earring"
Judianna Makovsky, "Seabiscuit"
Ngila Dickson, "The Return of the King"
Ngila Dickson, "The Last Samurai"
Wendy Stites, "Master & Commander"

BEST FOREIGN FILM

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Sweden, "Evil"
Canada, "The Barbarian Invasions"
The Netherlands, "Twin Sisters"
Czech Republic, "Zelary"
Japan, "The Twilight Samurai"

"Capturing the Friedmans"
"The Weather Underground"
"The Fog of War"
"Balseros"
"My Architect"

Its other nod for Best Original Screenplay
indicates stronger support than the other
films.

My heart is with "Friedmans," but Errol
Morris' legendary status might be too
powerful to overcome.

VISUAL EFFECTS

BEST MAKEUP

How can the wizardry behind Gollum and
the Battle of Minas Tirith go unrewarded?
They won't.

The showy work done by the "Pirates"
team will probably give it its only win of
the night.

BEST SCORE

PRODUCTION DESIGN

"The Return of the King"
"The Last Samurai"
"Seabiscuit"
"Girl With a Pearl Earring"
"Master & Commander"

Another close call. With the exception of
"Seabiscuit," all are worthy contenders.
But the "King" sweep might loom large.

BEST SOUND MIXING

ANIMATED SHORT

"Destino"
"Boundin"
"Gone Nutty"
"Harvie Krumpet"
"Nibbles"

There's a reason "Master & Commander"
got 10 nominations -- it was a technical
masterpiece.

"Destino," the long-lost union of Disney
and Salvador Dali, is the heavy favorite.
And we all want to hear's Roy's speech!

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

SHORT FILM

"Asylum"
"Chernobyl Heart"
"Ferry Tales"

"The Red Jacket"
"Most (The Bridge)"
"Squash"
"(A) Torsion"
"Two Soldiers"

THE LOWDOWN

I haven't seen any of these, but
"Chernobyl Heart" will likely pack an
emotional punch with voters.

I haven't seen any of these, either, but
"Most (The Bridge)" is rumored to be the
frontrunner.

PREDICTED WINS BY FILM*

THE RETURN OF THE KING -- 6
MYSTIC RIVER -- 2
MASTER & COMMANDER -- 2
COLD MOUNTAIN -- 1
MONSTER -- 1
HOUSE OF SAND & FOG -- 1
LOST IN TRANSLATION -- 1
AMERICAN SPLENDOR -- 1
FINDING NEMO -- 1
GIRL WITH A PEARL EARRING -- 1
CITY OF GOD -- 1
THE BARBARIAN INVASIONS -- 1
THE FOG OF WAR -- 1
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN -- 1
DESTINO -- 1
CHERNOBYL HEART -- 1
MOST (THE BRIDGE) -- 1

*I know it's odd that I only have 3 movies
taking home multiple awards, but that's
the strange kind of year it was, I guess!

(So it's come to this)

Jamie Selkirk, "The Return of the King"
William Goldenberg, "Seabiscuit"
Daniel Rezende, "City of God"
Lee Smith, "Master & Commander"
Walter Murch, "Cold Mountain"

"Master & Commander"
"Pirates of the Caribbean"
"The Return of the King"

James Horner, "House of Sand & Fog"
Howard Shore, "The Return of the King"
Gabriel Yared, "Cold Mountain"
Danny Elfman, "Big Fish"
Thomas Newman, "Finding Nemo"

"You Will Be My Ain True Love" ("Cold Mountain")
"Into the West" ("The Return of the King")
"Scarlet Tide" ("Cold Mountain")
"Belleville Rendez-Vous" ("The Triplets of Belleville")
"Kiss at the End of the Rainbow" ("A Mighty Wind")

"Master & Commander"
"The Return of the King"
"Pirates of the Caribbean"

"Seabiscuit"
"Master & Commander"
"The Return of the King"
"The Last Samurai"
"Pirates of the Caribbean"

"Finding Nemo"
"Pirates of the Caribbean"
"Master & Commander"

"The Triplets of Belleville"
"Finding Nemo"
"Brother Bear"

I've decided not to be swept in by the boring inevitability of this year's show, so I'm
going out on a limb with two key predictions -- I'm not selecting Renee Zellweger
(yes, you read that right) and I will be counting on "American Splendor." Read on...

"Seabiscuit"
"Mystic River"
"Master & Commander"
"Lost in Translation"
"The Return of the King"

Peter Jackson has had this coming since 2001. Though the other nominees -- especially Weir and
Coppola -- put up strong efforts, Jackson will get a Best Director statue to match his Best Picture one.

After Johnny Depp's win at the SAG awards, it's clear that he has stronger support than expected. As
such, he'll likely split any "comedy" votes with Bill Murray, leaving Sean Penn open for the win.

If the SAG awards had given this to, say, Diane Keaton or Naomi Watts, then there'd be a real race. But
after nearly every major precursor has gone Charlize Theron's way, there's no chance she'll lose here.

Tim Robbins, seen as the frontrunner by many since the film opened, has this category all sewn up.
The others just simply didn't gather enough support.

I'm going out on a very shaky limb here (and I know I'll regret it; perhaps my distaste for Renee is
clouding my judgment) but I think the poignant work by Aghdashloo may barely squeak by.

If there was any hope for "In America," the script would've taken the WGA award. But it didn't, and
Coppola remains the frontrunner.

Another shaky-limb prediction. Though I hate to jump on the WGA's "American Splendor" bandwagon,
I feel like the super-serious "Seabiscuit" and "Mystic River" scripts will ultimately cancel each other out.

THE LOWDOWN

This is one category where the winner
usually deserves it; "Girl with a Pearl
Earring" had a lot of precursor wins here.

The Academy will probably reward the
breakthrough "City of God" somewhere,
and this seems like a safe bet.

In the battle of Ngila vs. Ngila, I bet her
"Return of the King" duds get caught up in
a sweep.

The "Cold Mountain" tunes will likely
cancel each other out, leading Golden
Globe winner "Into the West" to victory.

This is a close call. Elfman's never won,
but I'll bet the sorrowful plucking of "Cold
Mountain" is best remembered.

THE LOWDOWN