no reason to think it won't win. "The Aviator" still wouldn't surprise
me, but the Scorsese epic just doesn't have an emotional pull. And
don't count out "Sideways" if "Baby" and "Aviator" split -- it won a
top Globe, the top Critics' Choice award, and the SAG ensemble.
Sideways
Ray
The Aviator
Million Dollar Baby
Finding Neverland
Million Dollar Baby
POTENTIAL SPOILER
The Aviator
IF I COULD VOTE
Sideways
Marshall took the DGA and Roman Polanski won the Oscar), I don't
think AMAPS voters will be able to reject Marty yet again. You could
make a firm case for Eastwood winning (he did take the DGA after all,
the most reliable precursor) but, c'mon, he's won before.
Alexander Payne, Sideways
Taylor Hackford, Ray
Martin Scorsese, The Aviator
Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby
Mike Leigh, Vera Drake
Martin Scorsese, The Aviator
POTENTIAL SPOILER
Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby
IF I COULD VOTE
Alexander Payne, Sideways
Foxx's to lose since the first viewings of "Ray" last fall. If anyone
else's name is read, it will be the biggest shock since "Shakespeare in
Love" won Best Picture over "Saving Private Ryan." But don't expect
a shock; Jamie Foxx will win.
Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby
Jamie Foxx, Ray
Johnny Depp, Finding Neverland
Don Cheadle, Hotel Rwanda
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Aviator
Jamie Foxx, Ray
POTENTIAL SPOILER
Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby
IF I COULD VOTE
Jamie Foxx, Ray
Catalina Sandino Moreno could take it. Bening supposedly
"deserves" it, Staunton's film found unexpected support, and
Winslet gives the most transformative performance. But all these
little factors cancel each other out, leaving Swank the likely victor.
Annette Bening, Being Julia
Kate Winslet, Eternal Sunshine
Catalina Moreno, Maria Full of Grace
Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby
Imelda Staunton, Vera Drake
Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby
POTENTIAL SPOILER
Imelda Staunton, Vera Drake
IF I COULD VOTE
Kate Winslet, Eternal Sunshine
Church for weeks, but the goodwill that Freeman inspires among his
fellow actors and the filmmaking community will probably just barely
put him over the top. Hearing either of their names wouldn't surprise
me, but if they split the vote, Clive Owen will be waiting in the wings.
Thomas Haden Church, Sideways
Jamie Foxx, Collateral
Clive Owen, Closer
Morgan Freeman, Million Dollar Baby
Alan Alda, The Aviator
one semi-shocking upset on Oscar night. That's where Virginia
Madsen comes in. She gave a heartfelt performance, embodies an
unshakable underdog spirit, and got the most ink during award
season. She'll win it by a nose.
Virginia Madsen, Sideways
Sophie Okonedo, Hotel Rwanda
Natalie Portman, Closer
Cate Blanchett, The Aviator
Laura Linney, Kinsey
Virginia Madsen, Sideways
POTENTIAL SPOILER
Cate Blanchett, The Aviator
IF I COULD VOTE
Virginia Madsen, Sideways
threatening Charlie Kaufman's brilliant "Eternal Sunshine," but I doubt
it. Voters will take to heart the name of this category and reward the
most inventive screenwriter in town. Despite the social importance of
"Hotel Rwanda," it can't expect to be a factor.
Mike Leigh, Vera Drake
Charlie Kaufman, Eternal Sunshine
John Logan, The Aviator
Brad Bird, The Incredibles
Pearson & George, Hotel Rwanda
Charlie Kaufman, Eternal Sunshine
POTENTIAL SPOILER
John Logan, The Aviator
IF I COULD VOTE
Charlie Kaufman, Eternal Sunshine
confident they'll do it here (if nowhere else). Despite the frontrunner
status of "Million Dollar Baby" in other categories, the pleas of critics
all season long will surely inspire voters to spread the wealth for this
truly deserving nominee.
A. Payne & J. Taylor, Sideways
Paul Haggis, Million Dollar Baby
David Magee, Finding Neverland
Linklater & The Cast, Before Sunset
Jose Rivera, Motorcycle Diaries
A. Payne & J. Taylor, Sideways
POTENTIAL SPOILER
Paul Haggis, Million Dollar Baby
IF I COULD VOTE
A. Payne & J. Taylor, Sideways
The Phantom of the Opera
A Very Long Engagement
House of Flying Daggers
The Aviator
The Passion of the Christ
The Aviator
IF I COULD VOTE
The Aviator
Collateral
Million Dollar Baby
The Aviator
Ray
Finding Neverland
The Aviator
IF I COULD VOTE
Collateral
The Phantom of the Opera
A Very Long Engagement
Lemony Snicket...
The Aviator
Finding Neverland
The Aviator
IF I COULD VOTE
Lemony Snicket...
The Passion of the Christ
Harry Potter 3
Finding Neverland
Lemony Snicket...
The Village
Finding Neverland
IF I COULD VOTE
The Village
The Aviator
Troy
Finding Neverland
Ray
Lemony Snicket...
The Aviator
IF I COULD VOTE
Lemony Snicket...
'Learn to Be Lonely' -- Phantom
'Al Otro Lado' -- Motorycle Diaries
'Look to Your Path' -- Les Choristes
'Believe' -- The Polar Express
'Accidentally in Love' -- Shrek 2
'Accidentally in Love' -- Shrek 2
IF I COULD VOTE
'Al Otro Lado' -- Motorycle Diaries
The Aviator
The Polar Express
Ray
The Incredibles
Spider-Man 2
The Incredibles
The Polar Express
Spider-Man 2
Spider-Man 2
IF I COULD VOTE
Spider-Man 2
I, Robot
Harry Potter 3
Spider-Man 2
Spider-Man 2
IF I COULD VOTE
Spider-Man 2
Lemony Snicket...
The Passion of the Christ
The Sea Inside
The Passion of the Christ
IF I COULD VOTE
Lemony Snicket...
Shrek 2
The Incredibles
Shark Tale
The Incredibles
IF I COULD VOTE
The Incredibles
Sweden -- As It Is in Heaven
Spain -- The Sea Inside
Germany -- Downfall
France -- Les Choristes
South Africa -- Yesterday
Spain -- The Sea Inside
Super Size Me
The Story of the Weeping Camel
Born Into Brothels
Tupac: Resurrection
Twist of Faith
Born Into Brothels
Autism Is a World
The Children of Leningradsky
Mighty Times: The Children's March
Sister Rose's Passion
Hardwood
The Children of Leningradsky
Birthday Boy
Gopher Broke
Guard Dog
Ryan
Lorenzo
Gopher Broke
Everything in This Country Must
7:35 in the Morning
Wasp
Little Terrorist
Two Cars, One Night
Little Terrorist
The Aviator
Million Dollar Baby
Ray, Spider-Man 2, Sideways
Eternal Sunshine, Finding Neverland, Shrek 2,
The Passion of the Christ, The Sea Inside,
Born Into Brothels, Little Terrorist,
Gopher Broke, The Children of Leningradsky,
The Incredibles
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