finalpredix2004

The Nominees

HOW DID I DO?

I missed "Lost in Translation," thinking that the Miramax streak would continue; it didn't. I actually
enjoyed "Cold Mountain" more than some of their other pushes like "Cider House Rules" and "Chocolat."

WHAT TO EXPECT

BEST DIRECTOR

Sofia Coppola, "Lost in Translation"
Clint Eastwood, "Mystic River"
Peter Weir, "Master & Commander"
Fernando Meirelles, "City of God"
Peter Jackson, "The Return of the King"

HOW DID I DO?

WHAT TO EXPECT

BEST ACTOR

Bill Murray, "Lost in Translation"
Sean Penn, "Mystic River"
Johnny Depp, "Pirates of the Caribbean"
Jude Law, "Cold Mountain"
Ben Kinglsey, "House of Sand & Fog"

HOW DID I DO?

WHAT TO EXPECT

Sean Penn's the frontrunner, but Bill Murray is quickly catching up. His hilarious speech at the Golden
Globes -- and Penn's non-appearance -- put him in close contention. But perhaps voters will go for
Johhny Depp. Though he's a longshot, he got the most gasps and screams when his name was read
during the nomination press conference.

BEST ACTRESS

Charlize Theron, "Monster"
Diane Keaton, "Something's Gotta Give"
Samantha Morton, "In America"
Naomi Watts, "21 Grams"
Keisha Castle-Hughes, "Whale Rider"

HOW DID I DO?

WHAT TO EXPECT

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Benicio Del Toro, "21 Grams"
Alec Baldwin, "The Cooler"
Djimon Hounsou, "In America"
Ken Watanabe, "The Last Samurai"
Tim Robbins, "Mystic River"

HOW DID I DO?

WHAT TO EXPECT

With Finney completely out of the race -- he wouldn't have come to the ceremony, anyway -- this is
Tim Robbins' to lose. This would've been one of the closer races of the night had Finney's name been
read, but Mr. Susan Sarandon looks set for his first trip to the podium as a winner. Oh, and we finally
have a Baldwin Oscar nominee. (No, Kim Basinger doesn't count.)

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Holly Hunter, "Thirteen"
Shohreh Aghdashloo, "House of Sand & Fog"
Patricia Clarkson, "Pieces of April"
Renee Zellweger, "Cold Mountain"
Marcia Gay Harden, "Mystic River"

HOW DID I DO?

WHAT TO EXPECT

Renee is the clear frontrunner, but with the lack of overall support for "Cold Mountain" don't be
surprised if her chances of winning now drop to 95%. Patricia Clarkson could be the recipient of a
"body of work" honor, or Holly Hunter could score sympathy votes because co-star Evan Rachel Wood
wasn't nominated alongside her. On second thought...nah.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

"In America"
"Lost in Translation"
"Finding Nemo"
"Dirty Pretty Things"
"The Barbarian Invasions"

HOW DID I DO?

WHAT TO EXPECT

Miramax is up even when it's down. Despite "Cold Mountain" losing out on several nominations, "City
of God" and dark horses "The Barbarian Invasions" and "Dirty Pretty Things" ended up with screenplay
nominations. But this race is between "Lost in Translation" and "In America." "Lost" is in the lead, but
sentimentality with older voters tips in "America's" favor.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

"The Return of the King"
"American Splendor"
"City of God"
"Seabiscuit"
"Mystic River"

HOW DID I DO?

WHAT TO EXPECT

Aside from "City of God," the usual suspects are all here. But I'm starting to think that "Mystic River"
may not be the solid frontrunner many are thinking it is. Screenwriter Brian Helgeland has won already,
and wouldn't it be appropriate in this year of oddball indie recognition to give the Oscar to "American
Splendor"?

BEST SOUND EDITING

ANIMATED FEATURE

Predicted this category 3/3, which was
pretty easy to do. "Nemo" is the surefire
winner.

I thought "Kill Bill, Vol. I" would figure in
somewhere, but it didn't. Maybe next
year for "Vol. II"?

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

BEST EDITING

Eduardo Serra, "Girl With a Pearl Earring"
Cesar Charlone, "City of God"
John Seale, "Cold Mountain"
John Schwartzman, "Seabiscuit"
Russell Boyd, "Master & Commander"

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

BEST SONG

D. Van Straalen, "Girl With a Pearl Earring"
Judianna Makovsky, "Seabiscuit"
Ngila Dickson, "The Return of the King"
Ngila Dickson, "The Last Samurai"
Wendy Stites, "Master & Commander"

BEST FOREIGN FILM

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Sweden, "Evil"
Canada, "The Barbarian Invasions"
The Netherlands, "Twin Sisters"
Czech Republic, "Zelary"
Japan, "The Twilight Samurai"

"Capturing the Friedmans"
"The Weather Underground"
"The Fog of War"
"Balseros"
"My Architect"

Aside from "Barbarian Invasions," these
were all complete shocks. No "Osama"?
"The Return"? "Good Bye Lenin"?

I scored 3/5 thinking the excellent "Bus
174" would place here, as well as the
touching "My Flesh and Blood."

VISUAL EFFECTS

BEST MAKEUP

I missed "Master & Commander" in favor
of "X2." The year's best action film
scored no nods.

"Monster" didn't find itself here like I
thought. "Master" fared surprisingly well
in the technical categories.

BEST SCORE

PRODUCTION DESIGN

James Horner, "House of Sand & Fog"
Howard Shore, "The Return of the King"
Gabriel Yared, "Cold Mountain"
Danny Elfman, "Big Fish"
Thomas Newman, "Finding Nemo"

"The Return of the King"
"The Last Samurai"
"Seabiscuit"
"Girl With a Pearl Earring"
"Master & Commander"

None of these picks were too surprising; it
was a strong showing overall for "Girl
With a Pearl Earring."

BEST SOUND MIXING

ANIMATED SHORT

"Destino"
"Boudin"
"Gone Nutty"
"Harvie Krumpet"
"Nibbles"

SHORT FILM

Oscar voters favored the historical over
the bombastic this year, as no out-and-out
action films ("Hulk," "X2") made the cut.

"The Red Jacket"
"Most (The Bridge)"
"Squash"
"(A) Torsion"
"Two Soldiers"

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

"Asylum"
"Chernobyl Heart"
"Ferry Tales"

PREDICTED NOMINEE TOTALS BY FILM

THE RETURN OF THE KING -- 11
COLD MOUNTAIN -- 10
MASTER & COMMANDER -- 8
MYSTIC RIVER -- 8
BIG FISH -- 6
THE LAST SAMURAI -- 5
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN -- 4
LOST IN TRANSLATION -- 4
GIRL WITH A PEARL EARRING -- 3
SEABISCUIT -- 3
FINDING NEMO -- 3
21 GRAMS -- 3
MONSTER -- 2
THIRTEEN -- 2
HOUSE OF SAND & FOG -- 2
X2: X-MEN UNITED -- 2
PIECES OF APRIL -- 1
SOMETHING'S GOTTA GIVE -- 1
IN AMERICA -- 1
THE STATION AGENT -- 1
AMERICAN SPLENDOR -- 1
THE COOLER -- 1
KILL BILL, VOL. I -- 1
BROTHER BEAR -- 1
THE TRIPLETS OF BELLEVILLE -- 1
TERMINATOR 3 -- 1
A MIGHTY WIND -- 1
SCHOOL OF ROCK -- 1

(FOREIGN FILMS, DOCUMENTARIES, ETC. NOT INCLUDED)

ACTUAL NOMINEE TOTALS BY FILM

THE RETURN OF THE KING -- 11
MASTER & COMMANDER -- 10
SEABISCUIT -- 7
COLD MOUNTAIN -- 7
MYSTIC RIVER -- 6
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN -- 5
LOST IN TRANSLATION -- 4
CITY OF GOD -- 4
FINDING NEMO -- 4
THE LAST SAMURAI -- 4
GIRL WITH A PEARL EARRING -- 3
IN AMERICA -- 3
HOUSE OF SAND & FOG -- 3
X2: X-MEN UNITED -- 2
21 GRAMS -- 2
THE BARBARIAN INVASIONS -- 2
THE TRIPLETS OF BELLEVILLE -- 2
MONSTER -- 1
THIRTEEN -- 1
PIECES OF APRIL -- 1
SOMETHING'S GOTTA GIVE -- 1
THE STATION AGENT -- 1
AMERICAN SPLENDOR -- 1
THE COOLER -- 1
BROTHER BEAR -- 1
A MIGHTY WIND -- 1
BIG FISH -- 1

(FOREIGN FILMS, DOCUMENTARIES, ETC. NOT INCLUDED)

Not exactly a predictable year

Jamie Selkirk, "The Return of the King"
William Goldenberg, "Seabiscuit"
Daniel Rezende, "City of God"
Lee Smith, "Master & Commander"
Walter Murch, "Cold Mountain"

"Master & Commander"
"Pirates of the Caribbean"
"The Return of the King"

"You Will be My Ain True Love" ("Cold Mountain")
"Into the West" ("The Return of the King")
"Scarlet Tide" ("Cold Mountain")
"Triplets of Belleville" ("Triplets of Belleville")
"Kiss at the End of the Rainbow" ("A Mighty Wind")

"Master & Commander"
"The Return of the King"
"Pirates of the Caribbean"

"Seabiscuit"
"Master & Commander"
"The Return of the King"
"The Last Samurai"
"Pirates of the Caribbean"

"Finding Nemo"
"Pirates of the Caribbean"
"Master & Commander"

"The Triplets of Belleville"
"Finding Nemo"
"Brother Bear"

There were a few surprises this go-round, including 13-year-old Keisha
Castle-Hughes, the abundance of "City of God" nominations, and the absence of
"Cold Mountain" from most of the top categories. Analysis follows...

"Seabiscuit"
"Mystic River"
"Master & Commander"
"Lost in Translation"
"The Return of the King"

Expect "The Return of the King" to take the Oscar. But this is a very respectable lineup. Interestingly,
this is the first time in nearly forty years that there are three Best Picture nominees -- "Seabiscuit,"
"Return of the King," "Master & Commander" -- that have no acting nominations. "Lost in Translation"
should've had one more.

I guessed Minghella; the Academy chose Meirelles. This was perhaps the biggest shock of the morning,
as "City of God" missed out on a foreign film nod last year, yet was able to wrangle this big nomination.

This award is for Peter Jackson all the way. The director's branch is getting more and more
freethinking, however. Fernando Meirelles, Pedro Almodovar, David Lynch...who's next, Jim
Jarmusch? At least they're making choices on their own merits and not blindly following the precursor
path. Anthony Mighella, director of "Cold Mountain," went 0/2.

This was my one 5/5 category among the Big 8. Many didn't think that Jude Law would place as the
film's support waned. I correctly figured he still had a good shot.

I missed Hughes and Morton in favor of Wood and Connelly. Of all the young actresses to break
through this year (Evan Rachel Wood, Scarlett Johansson) they chose to honor Hughes. Interesting.

At 13 years old, Keisha Castle-Hughes is the youngest Best Actress nominee ever. Pretty surprising for
a girl that was all but left out of the precursor awards until the SAG nominations. She won't win,
though; Charlize Theron will. Her two biggest challengers are Naomi Watts (a similarly stark
performance in a gritty film) and Diane Keaton ('cause she's a legend).

I was banking on Albert Finney, but voters picked Djimon Hounsou. This is a very respectable lineup,
with no real surprises.

I missed Aghdashloo in favor of Johansson. I had said that the Iranian actress was a close #6;
apparently she was a close #5.

I missed "Invasions" and "Dirty" in favor of "The Station Agent" and "The Last Samurai." The two that
made it were longshots but not completely out of the blue.

Voters apparently had no love for "Cold Mountain," as they gave its slot to "City of God." Are they
trying to send Miramax a message? (Then again,"City of God" is a Miramax movie also.)

HOW DID I DO?

The winner of this award could be a
surprise -- maybe "Pearl Earring" or "City
of God"?

HOW DID I DO?

I got 2/5 here, only correctly guessing
Selkirk and Smith. I can see why the
other 3 are here, though.

HOW DID I DO?

I didn't think "Seabiscuit" would score so
strongly in the technical categories, but it
seems to have struck a chord.

HOW DID I DO?

Unfortunately "School of Rock" didn't land
here like I had thought, but "A Mighty
Wind" did -- and could take the win.

HOW DID I DO?

Danny Elfamn's score for "Big Fish" was
the pic's only nomination. He might win
out of sympathy.

HOW DID I DO?