"THE PIANIST"
"ABOUT SCHMIDT"
"THE HOURS"
"THE TWO TOWERS"
for the Academy, a female-driven pic --
either this or "Chicago" -- will take the Best
Picture Oscar. Miramax may have a tough
time playing favorites in their campaigns.
Day-Lewis. Although the Hollywood
Foreign Press may have no trouble
rewarding Nicholson so many times, I firmly
believe that AMPAS voters will think twice
before handing him a fourth Oscar.
Day-Lewis is still the frontrunner in my
mind; we'll have to wait and see who wins
the SAG award before making any final
conclusions in this tightest of races.
THE HOURS
Julianne Moore,
FAR FROM HEAVEN
Salma Hayek,
FRIDA
Diane Lane,
UNFAITHFUL
Nicole Kidman,
THE HOURS
Moore and Kidman. Julianne, without a
Golden Globe, is now as vulnerable as Sissy
Spacek was last year just as Halle Berry
started gaining speed. But Oscar voters may
feel that Moore deserves this more since
she's been nominated twice prior and seems
poised for the win; Kidman just started
coming into her own as an actress and
should have a shot next year with "Dogville."
must be considered a frontrunner for the top
Oscar. Despite its cynicism, musicality,
femme focus, and unseriousness, it's an
impressive show.
been a surefire Oscar nominee (and may
have helped push "Adaptation" into a Best
Picture slot). Even Hugh Grant, had he
won, might've had a serious bid for Best
Actor. But Richard Gere, as much as he
does in the role, has such a comparatively
small amount of screen time that it's tough to
imagine AMPAS voters checking his name
off on their ballots.
she would've fallen from my Final 5 Best
Actress contenders. But she pulled through,
and doused the miniscule chances that
Gyllenhaal and Vardalos had for Oscar nods.
Of course, Zellweger has no chance of
winning the Academy Award (though
Zeta-Jones has a legitimate shot at Best
Supporting Actress, where she should
rightfully be placed when nominations are
announced).
CHICAGO
Nia Vardalos,
MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING
Goldie Hawn,
THE BANGER SISTERS
Maggie Gyllenhaal,
SECRETARY
Renee Zellweger,
CHICAGO
Globes this time, as Chris Cooper has swept
almost every organization's Best Supporting
Actor prize. He's clearly the frontrunner,
and will likely upset Dennis Quaid (who
experienced a career renaissance this year
nonetheless) and Ed Harris (who will end up
being a 4-time Oscar loser). Reilly still
seems like a viable alternate for my Final 5
candidates though, despite his loss.
IGBY GOES DOWN
Queen Latifah,
CHICAGO
Cameron Diaz,
GANGS OF NEW YORK
Meryl Streep,
ADAPTATION
Kathy Bates,
ABOUT SCHMIDT
surprisingly shocked and gracious when
making her acceptance speech, and all the
attention "Adaptation" has been getting
recently will make Oscar voters want to give
the film another look. When they do, they'll
realize how funny, touching, and nuanced
her performance is. Kathy Bates has scored
almost as much precursor attention as
Streep, but has much less time onscreen.
Director award no matter if the film wins or
not, just because he's made so many other
great films? Why doesn't the Academy give
him some sort of lifetime achievement
award and leave the competitive category
open for a director whose artistic vision
excelled this year; Daldry, Jonze, Marshall,
and Jackson are all prime candidates. Even
another veteran who has never won --
Polanski -- is more deserving of the trophy
this year. But I guess Marty's win is long
overdue.
ADAPTATION
Todd Haynes,
FAR FROM HEAVEN
Bill Condon,
CHICAGO
David Hare,
THE HOURS
Alexander Payne & Jim Taylor,
ABOUT SCHMIDT
run for its money, similar to how "In the
Bedroom" got all the Best Adapted
Screenplay critical support last year but "A
Beautiful Mind" walked away with the
Oscar. I really hope that Kaufman's gem
takes the big prize in March; it's more
ingenious, touching, witty, and sophisticated
than all the other scripts out there in
contention.
Bernstein will have more pull with the
Academy. He's a legendary composer
who's won before and whose work in the
'50s and '60s inspired all the young film
scorers of today. Plus, he'e nearly a
household name...and only John Williams
has that kind of recognition. But Goldenthal
is a lock for a nomination at least, and with
Miramax behind him, who knows?
DIE ANOTHER DAY
Paul Simon, "Father & Daughter"
WILD THORNBERRYS MOVIE
Bryan Adams, "Here I Am"
SPIRIT: STALLION...
Eminem, "Lose Yourself"
8 MILE
U2, "The Hands that Built America"
GANGS OF NEW YORK
they're more "rock" than Paul Simon but
way less "edgy" than Eminem. And lately
they've come to symbolize wholesome
message music that people of all ages can
enjoy. The band has been a Grammy
mainstay for the past two or three years (for
the same album!) and the music branch of
AMPAS isn't that much different from the
recording industry's academy.
"Crime of Father Amaro" (Mexico)
"Hero" (China)
"Nowhere in Africa" (Germany)
"Talk to Her" (Spain)
"Balzac and the Little Chinese
Seamstress" (France)
to Her" isn't eligible in this category. Will it
push up Pedro Almodovar for a Best
Director or Best Screenplay nomination? I
think no; the director race is too tight and "Y
Tu Mama Tambien," also ineligible here, has
won the lion's share of precursor awards.