PICTURE (DRAMA)
WINNER
Since the expected winner won, this race basically holds no function for Oscar voters other than to
solidify "The Return of the King's" frontrunner status.  Peter Jackson seemed appropriately gracious
and will probably make a fine Oscar speech on February 29th.  Elijah Wood looked very uneasy and
hobbit-like.
THIS MEANS...
...that, like most people have been predicting since last year's Oscars, "The Return of the King" is as
good as gold.
ACTOR (DRAMA)
ACTUAL NOMINEES
MY PREDICTIONS
Jude Law,
COLD MOUNTAIN
Sean Penn,
MYSTIC RIVER
Paddy Considine,
IN AMERICA
Tom Cruise,
THE LAST SAMURAI
Ben Kingsley,
HOUSE OF SAND & FOG
WINNER
THIS MEANS...
...that conservative Oscar voters will have to think twice before discounting Penn for political reasons.  
The second-biggest award-giver has deemed his performance one of the best of the year.
ACTRESS (DRAMA)
ACTUAL NOMINEES
MY PREDICTIONS
Cate Blanchett,
THE MISSING
Gwyneth Paltrow,
SYLVIA
Jennifer Connelly,
HOUSE OF SAND & FOG
Naomi Watts,
21 GRAMS
Nicole Kidman,
COLD MOUNTAIN
 Cate Blanchett,
VERONICA GUERIN
Evan Rachel Wood,
THIRTEEN
Uma Thurman,
KILL BILL, VOL. I
Charlize Theron,
MONSTER
Nicole Kidman,
COLD MOUNTAIN
Scarlett Johansson,
GIRL WITH A PEARL EARRING
WINNER
THIS MEANS...
...that Charlize Theron will be very tough to beat at the Oscars.  Keaton's performance was good but
too light, and the rest of potential nominees are good but in films too small or divisive.
PICTURE (MUS/COM)
ACTUAL NOMINEES
MY PREDICTIONS
"FINDING NEMO"
"LOST IN TRANSLATION"
"AMERICAN SPLENDOR"
"LOVE ACTUALLY"
"SOMETHING'S GOTTA GIVE"
WINNER
THIS MEANS...
...that perhaps "Lost in Translation" has a better shot at a Best Picture nomination than I'd previously
thought.  But which other pic would it knock off?
ACTOR (MUS/COM)
ACTUAL NOMINEES
MY PREDICTIONS
Johnny Depp,
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN
Bill Murray,
LOST IN TRANSLATION
Jack Nicholson,
SOMETHING'S GOTTA GIVE
Paul Giamatti,
AMERICAN SPLENDOR
Will Ferrell,
ELF
WINNER
THIS MEANS...
...that Bill Murray is Sean Penn's biggest competition for the Oscar.  Although critics have been singing
Penn's praises for months, Murray gave the best acceptance speech of the night by far.
ACTRESS (MUS/COM)
ACTUAL NOMINEES
MY PREDICTIONS
Jamie Lee Curtis,
FREAKY FRIDAY
Helen Miren,
CALENDAR GIRLS
Diane Keaton,
SOMETHING'S GOTTA GIVE
Diane Lane,
UNDER THE TUSCAN SUN
Uma Thurman,
KILL BILL, VOL. I
WINNER
THIS MEANS...
...that, should Charlize Theron not win for some reason, Keaton is next in line.  But that just won't
happen, so it's irrelevant.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
ACTUAL NOMINEES
MY PREDICTIONS
Albert Finney,
BIG FISH
Tim Robbins,
MYSTIC RIVER
Benicio Del Toro,
21 GRAMS
Djimon Hounsou,
IN AMERICA
Ken Watanabe,
THE LAST SAMURAI
WINNER
As usual, Grumpy Alby Finney didn't come to the show.  Tim Robbins made a very short but effective
speech and cements his status as the new frontrunner for the Oscar.  This is one of the few other
categories where a surprise upset was possible, but worthy Sarsgaard (dating Maggie Gylenhaal?) and
Watanabe couldn't do the trick.
THIS MEANS...
...that Albert Finney's lock on the Oscar has escaped his grasp.  It's now for Tim Robbins to lose, and
sans any political grudges, he should walk away with the gold on the 29th.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
ACTUAL NOMINEES
Scarlett Johansson,
LOST IN TRANSLATION
Renee Zellweger,
COLD MOUNTAIN
Marcia Gay Harden,
MYSTIC RIVER
Hope Davis,
AMERICAN SPLENDOR
Melissa Leo,
21 GRAMS
WINNER
THIS MEANS...
...that Zellweger's dog is going to be very lonely on Oscar night as its owner will be busy at all the
post-show parties.
DIRECTOR
ACTUAL NOMINEES
MY PREDICTIONS
Peter Jackson,
THE RETURN OF THE KING
Sofia Coppola,
LOST IN TRANSLATION
Clint Eastwood,
MYSTIC RIVER
Anthony Minghella,
COLD MOUNTAIN
Peter Weir,
MASTER & COMMANDER
WINNER
This is the first time in about 4 years that the Best Director trophy went to someone whose film also
won Best Picture.  Not a surprise, though.  If voters were going to give anyone else this award they
would've also given it a Pest Picture win.  Although the winners have no effect on Oscar nominations,
"Master & Commander" and "Cold Mountain" seem awfully stale by now.
THIS MEANS...
...that this is for Peter Jackson all the way.  Even ol' Clint or indie darling Sofia couldn't nab the trophy
away from him.
SCREENPLAY
ACTUAL NOMINEES
MY PREDICTIONS
"LOST IN TRANSLATION"
"BIG FISH"
"MYSTIC RIVER"
"21 GRAMS"
"IN AMERICA"
WINNER
THIS MEANS...
...that "Lost in Translation" confirms its frontrunner status at the Oscars.  But somehow I think "In
America" is still a threat, offering up the kind of sentimentality that appeals to older voters.
SCORE
SONG
ACTUAL NOMINEES
ACTUAL NOMINEES
WINNER
WINNER
THE LOWDOWN
THE LOWDOWN
A mild surprise, but a worthy winner.  
Sometimes the Globes go for something
bizarre and small -- but not this year.  The
mere mention of "Girl With a Pearl Earring"
probably raised its profile significantly.
It's not like moviegoers regularly heard any of
these songs on the radio, and I'm sure Oscar
voters won't remember them after their screener
tapes have rewound.  The point -- this category
is just plain useless.
FOREIGN FILM
ACTUAL NOMINEES
WINNER
THE LOWDOWN
Will "Osama" pull a "No Man's Land" and
upset "Amelie"-esque frontrunner "The
Barbarian Invasions" just as the race is
winding down?  In this highly political year,
I'm starting to think it could.
Back to Academy Award Speculation


Golden Globes Analysis 2004
Click here for last year's race
"COLD MOUNTAIN"
"THE RETURN OF THE KING"
"IN AMERICA"
"MYSTIC RIVER"
"THE LAST SAMURAI"
This had to be the most boring Golden Globes ceremony in recent memory.  The only real suprise of the night
came from the foreign film category, and when the big shock is that "Osama" beat "The Barbarian Invasions"
you know it's going to be a dull year at the Oscars.  Every category has a cemented frontrunner that is unlikely
to budge for the most part.  At least a good number of the winners -- though predictable -- were deserving.
MY PREDICTIONS
"COLD MOUNTAIN"
"THE RETURN OF THE KING"
"MASTER & COMMANDER"
"MYSTIC RIVER"
"SEABISCUIT"
ACTUAL NOMINEES
It would have been interesting to see Sean Penn give a speech, but Clint Eastwood gave a very moving
and touching congratulations by proxy.  Tom Cruise seems to be bizarrely regressing in age, but didn't
seem to mind at all that Nicole Kidman called Jude Law "Mr. Jude Law" when she read his name.  
Does Ben Kingsley think the cameras from "House of Sand & Fog" are still rolling?
Jude Law,
COLD MOUNTAIN
Sean Penn,
MYSTIC RIVER
Russell Crowe,
MASTER & COMMANDER
Tom Cruise,
THE LAST SAMURAI
Ben Kingsley,
HOUSE OF SAND & FOG
Charlize Theron thanked all the appropriate people (even her makeup artist) and seems to be priming
herself for an Oscar win next month.  She honestly seemed shocked when her name was called -- a
humble characteristic that Oscar voters like.  Good thing that Kidman didn't win -- she would've
giggled to death at the microphone.
There's no stopping the "Lost in Translation" juggernaut; even the animation-loving HFPA members
took themselves away from "Finding Nemo" to give the deserving nominee the win.  This certainly
raises the film's profile in regards to any nominations it may receive on Tuesday.  It might even score
in a technical category or two as well.
"FINDING NEMO"
"LOST IN TRANSLATION"
"BIG FISH"
"LOVE ACTUALLY"
"BEND IT LIKE BECKHAM"
There just wasn't a classier or funnier winner during the entire show than Bill Murray.  It almost makes
those rumors of him being "difficult" hard to believe.  Almost.  He had Nicholson and Thornton nearly
rolling on the floor, and kept me from switching back to "Curb Your Enthusiasm" on HBO.  Johnny
Depp's mere appearance was welcome.
Johnny Depp,
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN
Bill Murray,
LOST IN TRANSLATION
Jack Nicholson,
SOMETHING'S GOTTA GIVE
Billy Bob Thornton,
BAD SANTA
Jack Black,
SCHOOL OF ROCK
I was hoping that if Scarlett Johansson had won here it would be the one big shock of the night.  But
no such luck; she went 0/2 as most worthy candidates (read: Julianne Moore) do these days.  Jamie
Lee Curtis seemed so happy just to be nominated.  Helen Mirren wisely stayed away from show as she
went 0/2 as well.
Jamie Lee Curtis,
FREAKY FRIDAY
Helen Miren,
CALENDAR GIRLS
Diane Keaton,
SOMETHING'S GOTTA GIVE
Diane Lane,
UNDER THE TUSCAN SUN
Scarlett Johansson,
LOST IN TRANSLATION
Albert Finney,
BIG FISH
Tim Robbins,
MYSTIC RIVER
Alec Baldwin,
THE COOLER
Peter Sarsgaard,
SHATTERED GLASS
Ken Watanabe,
THE LAST SAMURAI
William H. Macy,
SEABISCUIT
Boring.  Every other woman was much more deserving of the trophy than Zellweger.  My friends and
I who were watching the show screamed a collective "Nooooooooooo!" as her name was called.  And
they hadn't even seen the movie yet.  Patricia Clarkson was the best sport about the situation; Hope
Davis just looked strange.
MY PREDICTIONS
Holly Hunter,
THIRTEEN
Renee Zellweger,
COLD MOUNTAIN
Patricia Clarkson,
PIECES OF APRIL
Hope Davis,
AMERICAN SPLENDOR
Maria Bello,
THE COOLER
Sofia Coppola seemed flustered but grateful for her win -- the right mix of confusion, surprise, and
newfound success.  She carried herself very well, and came off even more humble than I thought she
would.  This race didn't shed any light on the Best Adapted Screenplay category since an original work
won the prize.
"LOST IN TRANSLATION"
"COLD MOUNTAIN"
"MYSTIC RIVER"
"LOVE ACTUALLY"
"IN AMERICA"
"COLD MOUNTAIN"
"GIRL WITH A PEARL EARRING"
"BIG FISH"
"THE RETURN OF THE KING"
"THE LAST SAMURAI"
"BIG FISH" ("Man of the Hour" -- Pearl Jam)
"COLD MOUNTAIN" ("You Will Be..." -- Sting)
"IN AMERICA" ("Time Enough for Tears" -- Bono & Gavin Friday)
"MONA LISA SMILE" ("Heart of Every Girl" -- Elton John)
"THE RETURN OF THE KING" ("Into the West" -- Annie Lennox)
"THE RETURN" (Russia)
"THE BARBARIAN INVASIONS" (Canada)
"GOOD BYE, LENIN" (Germany)
"MONSIEUR IBRAHIM" (France)
"OSAMA" (Afghanistan)
Peter Jackson,
THE RETURN OF THE KING
Sofia Coppola,
LOST IN TRANSLATION
Clint Eastwood,
MYSTIC RIVER
Anthony Minghella,
COLD MOUNTAIN
Edward Zwick,
THE LAST SAMURAI
Tim Burton,
BIG FISH