jitters

Last-Minute Jitters

BEST ACTOR --

It really is a toss-up between Bill Murray, Sean
Penn, and Johnny Depp. Although I'm sticking with
Penn, you could make a case for all three. One won
the majority of precursor awards (Murray), one
"deserves it" more (Penn), and one has the populist
vote (Depp). This is one of the toughest -- and best
-- Best Actor lineups in a while, so I won't be
disappointed if any of the five win. But between the
three frontrunners, I have to believe that Penn is the
most solid choice.
Although older voters might've seen Depp's
work in greater numbers, it'll probably (and wrongly)
come off as too goofy for an Oscar. And I'm
inclined to think that voters over 50 will react to Bill
Murray's work the way my parents and grandparents
did -- "I just don't get what the big deal was."

With 24 hours until the show,
here are the three closest races...

-- Anthony

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY --

I just noticed that I'm the only one over
on the OscarCentral chart predicting "American
Splendor" for this award. Am I that far off my
rocker? I honestly believe that this is a 5-way
race, and wouldn't be surprised if any of the
nominees grabbed the Oscar. But if I had to
do it all over again, I might switch to
"Seabiscuit." Like "Gosford Park" and "The
Cider House Rules" before it, the Academy
sometimes likes to reward its Best Picture
nominees in the screenplay categories if it has
no chance of winning many other awards. But
I hate changing my mind this late in the game,
so I'm sticking with "Splendor" in the hopes
that the Academy makes a wise decision in this
category. ("Sling Blade," anyone?)

BEST DOCUMENTARY --

This really is the tightest race of the evening.
In terms of filmmaking skill and emotional
involvement, "Capturing the Friedmans" deserves
the Oscar, hands down. But getting the chance to
award the legendary Errol Morris (director of the
brilliant "Gates of Heaven," "The Thin Blue Line,"
and "Fast, Cheap, & Out of Control," as you know)
might prove to be too big of a treat for members of
the documentary branch to overcome -- and I know
some of them. Plus, the topical nature of "Fog" is
eerily prescient to our current situation in Iraq, and
(the locquacious) Morris will surely make some sort
of political speech that voters will want to hear. In
short, I'd rather be wrong, but I think I'm right.

Oh, and one week from Sunday, check back for the one-year-ahead predictions for who
might get nominated in 2005.

       Questions, complaints? Email me here.

       --Anthony
         February 28, 2004