ANTHONY KUSICH
winner to least likely winner.
"A Beautiful Mind"
"Moulin Rouge!"
"The Fellowship of the Ring"
"Gosford Park"
"In the Bedroom"
many people (myself included) calling this a three-way race
at one point, each of the other four nominees has something
significant holding it back. "Moulin Rouge!" is too divisive;
"Fellowship" is seen as merely a solid genre flick; "Gosford"
is good but not Altman's best; "Bedroom" has no Best
Director nomination beside it. Because the Producer's Guild
gave a surprise win to "Moulin" it is staying slightly in the
running, but don't expect the elder Academy members to
vote for a retro-contempo musical featuring a dance
sequence set to "Like a Virgin" as the Best Picture of the year.
PREDICTED CORRECTLY ARE
IN GREEN, OSCAR WINNERS
THAT I DIDN'T PREDICT
CORRECTLY ARE IN YELLOW,
AND MY INCORRECT PICKS
ARE IN RED:
"A BEAUTIFUL MIND"
BEST DIRECTOR:
RON HOWARD,
"A BEAUTIFUL MIND"
ROBERT ALTMAN,
"GOSFORD PARK"
BEST ACTOR:
DENZEL WASHINTON,
"TRAINING DAY"
BEST ACTRESS:
HALLE BERRY,
"MONSTER'S BALL"
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
JIM BROADBENT,
"IRIS"
IAN McKELLAN,
"FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING"
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
JENNIFER CONNELLY,
"A BEAUTIFUL MIND"
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
JULIAN FELLOWES,
"GOSFORD PARK"
CHRIS & JONATHAN NOLAN,
"MEMENTO"
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
AKIVA GOLDSMAN,
"A BEAUTIFUL MIND"
BEST ANIMATED FILM:
"SHREK"
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
ANDREW LESNIE,
"FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING"
ROGER DEAKINS,
"MAN WHO WASN'T THERE"
BEST EDITING:
PIETRO SCALIA,
"BLACK HAWK DOWN"
DODY DORN,
"MEMENTO"
BEST ART DIRECTION:
"MOULIN ROUGE!"
BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
"MOULIN ROUGE!"
BEST MAKEUP:
"FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING"
BEST MUSICAL SCORE:
"FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING"
BEST SONG:
RANDY NEWMAN,
"IF I DIDN'T HAVE YOU"
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
"FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING"
"A.I."
BEST SOUND:
"BLACK HAWK DOWN"
BEST SOUND EDITING:
"PEARL HARBOR"
BEST FOREIGN FILM:
"NO MAN'S LAND"
"AMELIE"
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT:
"THOTH"
"ARTISTS & ORPHANS"
BEST DOCUM. FEATURE:
"MURDER ON A SUNDAY..."
"CHILDREN UNDER..."
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT:
"THE ACCOUNTANT"
"SPEED FOR THESPIANS"
BEST ANIMATED SHORT:
"FOR THE BIRDS"
Guild award -- and they are correct in
predicting how the Academy votes over 90%
of the time -- Altman is due an Oscar more
than Opie is. Most feel that "A Beautiful Mind"
finds its strength in acting more than directing,
and Altman has the support of the Academy's
huge acting bloc behind him. And despite his
film being praised as a huge technical feat and
winning several Best Picture awards (AFI,
British Academy), Peter Jackson's name has
been left off many Best Director lists. Perhaps
when the next two "Lord of the Rings"
installments are released he will be honored.
Robert Altman, "Gosford Park"
Ron Howard, "A Beautiful Mind"
Peter Jackson, "The Fellowship of the Ring"
Ridley Scott, "Black Hawk Down"
David Lynch, "Mulholland Drive"
Denzel Washington, "Training Day"
Russell Crowe, "A Beautiful Mind"
Tom Wilkinson, "In the Bedroom"
Will Smith, "Ali"
Sean Penn, "I am Sam"
Denzel will have none this year, as he will likely defeat
his close competitor Russell Crowe in this year's tightest
race. The win may be attributed to politics ("A Beautiful
Mind" isn't factually accurate), race (it's been decades
since a black actor has won as a lead), history (Russell
Crowe already won last year), or compensation (Denzel
lost for "Malcolm X" and "The Hurricane") -- but
probably not acting ability. If there was an awards
show that honored that quality, Tom Wilkinson would
be the hands-down victor for his emotionally troubled
performance. And now for the should have been
nominated's: Billy Bob Thornton ("The Man Who
Wasn't There) and Guy Pearce ("Memento").
have concluded that it is highly likely that Halle
Berry will take home the Oscar. Sissy Spacek was
the fruntrunner too long, and Nicole Kidman never
had a real shot; Berry's win at the SAG awards
confirmed her Oscar win. This will be the first
time in history, if my predictions pan out, that a
black actor and actress will be taking top honors
from the Academy. Berry would definitely deserve
her win if it came -- she deglamorized her image,
threw herself into the role, and became almost
unrecognizable as poverty-stricken widow Leticia
Musgrove. But Sissy Spacek remains a potent
second place choice.
Halle Berry, "Monster's Ball"
Sissy Spacek, "In the Bedroom"
Nicole Kidman, "Moulin Rouge!"
Judi Dench, "Iris"
Renee Zellweger, "Bridget Jones's Diary"
Ian McKellan, "The Fellowship of the Ring"
Ben Kingsley, "Sexy Beast"
Jim Broadbent, "Iris"
Ethan Hawke, "Training Day"
Jon Voight, "Ali"
dumbfounded as to why Ben Kingsley is no
longer considered the frontrunner for this award.
But Jim Broadbent's buzz has subsided and now
equally worthy nominee Ian McKellan has risen
to the forefront. His wizardly turn as Gandalf
will allow "The Fellowship of the Ring" to secure
at least one major Oscar. Additionally, the
mystery surrounding the inclusion of Hawke and
Voight amid the exclusion of Steve Buscemi for
"Ghost World," Tony Shalhoub for "The Man
Who Wasn't There," and Jude Law for "A.I.
Artificial Intelligence" continues to plague Oscar
predictors.
year's sure thing. Helen Mirren would have to pull off
an awfully big upset to unseat her. So far, Connelly's
won awards from the AFI, British Academy, Broadcast
Film Critics, Golden Satellites, Online Film Critics,
Southeastern Film Critics, and Golden Globes. Where
were all these people last year for her superior work in
"Requiem for a Dream"? They were probably working
hard at getting Judi Dench another nomination instead.
And the rest of the nominees... Maggie Smith will likely
cancel out votes with her costar, Kate Winslet will have
to wait for her next nomination (this is her third and
she's only 26), and Marisa Tomei can feel vindicated
for her unexpected "My Cousin Vinny" win a decade
ago.
Jennifer Connelly, "A Beautiful Mind"
Helen Mirren, "Gosford Park"
Maggie Smith, "Gosford Park"
Kate Winslet, "Iris"
Marisa Tomei, "In the Bedroom"
ALL CATEGORIES
14 RIGHT, 10 WRONG
58%
BETTER LUCK NEXT YEAR
TOP 8 CATEGORIES
(PIC, DIR, ACTING, S'PLAYS)
63%
ONLY SLIGHTLY BETTER
A big recap of the
night, inlcuding my
thoughts on who was
robbed and who got
what they deserved.
Also, speculation on
the politics of Oscar
this year. Then, this
site will be devoted to
my film reviews and
movie-related articles
until the 2002 award
season begins in eight
months. First up on
April 1: A flashback to
my Top 10 Films of
2000.
"Memento" -- Christopher and Jonathan Nolan
"Gosford Park" -- Julian Fellowes
"Monster's Ball" -- Milo Addica and Will Rokos
"The Royal Tenenbaums" -- Wes Anderson and Owen Wilson
"Amelie" -- Guillaume Laurant and Jean-Pierre Jeunet
witty and socially-conscious,
but "Memento" was more
inventive and intricately
structured. "Memento" has
been lauded as the best script
all year long, and despite its
unfortunate exclusion at the
Writer's Guild, I can't imagine
it losing the Oscar. Although
"Gosford" is more nominated,
the only real way to honor
"Memento" would be here (and
later for Best Editing).
"A Beautiful Mind" -- Akiva Goldsman
"In the Bedroom" -- Rob Festinger and Todd Field
"The Fellowship of the Ring" -- P. Jackson, P. Boyens, F. Walsh
"Shrek" -- T. Elliott, T. Rossio, J. Stillman, R. Schulman
"Ghost World" -- Terry Zwigoff and Daniel Clowes
but not the best of the year like
many people feel "In the
Bedroom" was. Now
"Bedroom" may go home
empty-handed for each of its 5
noms. This race started out a
sure thing for "Bedroom"
months ago and has gradually
morphed into a sure thing for
Goldsman's script. Remember,
though, three years ago "Gods
and Monsters" upset in this
category over "The Thin Red
Line" -- another supposed sure
thing.
