Best Picture
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DIRECTOR
 ACTOR
 ACTRESS
 SUP. ACTOR
 SUP. ACTRESS

 ORIGINAL S'PLAY
 TECH
 STAND-ALONE
THE FIVE NOMINEES:
THE WINNER:
THE
PIANIST
THE HOURS
 GANGS OF
NEW YORK
 THE TWO
TOWERS
FOR IT:
 FOR IT:
 FOR IT:
 FOR IT:
 FOR IT:
It has the most
nominations of any
film this year -- 13 --
and the unstoppable
Miramax ad machine.
 It tackles a serious
subject, and some
are even calling it
more chilling than
"Schindler's List."
 Great ensemble, great
source material, and
lots of Oscar pedigree.  
Its Globe win indicates
it has a fighting chance.
 Martin Scorsese is nearly
assured the Best Director
Oscar, and thus his film
may get some residual
support.
AGAINST IT:
THE LOWDOWN:
"Chicago" wins as predicted.  Although everyone knew it would take the big prize, Harvey Weinstein must have been
pretty nervous right before the envelope was being opened.  With Adrien Brody taking Best Actor, Ronald Harwood
unexpectedly taking Best Adapted Screenplay, and Roman Polanski shockingly taking Best Director, for a few seconds it
seemed as if "The Pianist" might go all the way -- just like at the British and French Academy Awards.  But Miramax
pulled through and racked up its 3rd Best Picture win, following "The English Patient" and "Shakespeare in Love."  Will
"Cold Mountain" make it 4 next year?  Will the Academy tire of movies starring Nicole Kidman and Renee Zellweger?   
DIDN'T MAKE THE CUT THIS YEAR:
ABOUT SCHMIDT
This kicked up enormous buzz from the
L.A. critics and Golden Globes.  Can it
sustain another month of precursors?
ADAPTATION
Without a DGA nod, it will
be tough to place into
Oscar's Final 5 here.
FAR FROM HEAVEN
Down for the count after the Globes' snub,
but still barely in the game.  The last
precursors, DGA/SAG/PGA, didn't happen.
ANTWONE FISHER
This directorial debut from
Denzel Washington needs
big guild support.
ROAD TO PERDITION
It's tough to say if the PGA mention was a
fluke or really pushed it back into serious
contention; the DGA didn't match it.
 MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING
It's a crowd-pleaser without across-the-board
critical support.  Like "Chocolat," "Ghost," and
"The Green Mile" before it.
CATCH ME IF YOU CAN
This is resting on the laurels of DiCaprio,
Hanks, and Spielberg.  Can they all
deliver at Oscar level here?
 PUNCH-DRUNK LOVE
Will the Academy embrace a movie
that stars Adam Sandler?  If directed
by P.T. Anderson, they might.
SOLARIS
Steven Soderbergh's sci-fi
remake wasn't able to
transcend its genre.
CONFESSIONS OF A DANGEROUS MIND
George Clooney's directorial debut should offer some
interesting surprises.  Early word is that it's a little too
quirky, though.
ORIGINAL PREDIX 4/12/02... PERDITION - HOURS - GANGS* - TWO TOWERS - CAT'S MEOW
LABOR DAY PREDIX 8/25/02... PERDITION - HOURS - GANGS* - PUNCH-DRUNK - ADAPTATION
EARLY SEPT. PREDIX 9/3/02... PERDITION - PIANIST - GANGS* - PUNCH-DRUNK - CHICAGO
LATE SEPT. PREDIX 9/19/02... PERDITION - PIANIST - GANGS* - CATCH ME - CHICAGO
EARLY OCT. PREDIX 10/6/02... PERDITION - PIANIST - GANGS* - CATCH ME - CHICAGO
HALLOWEEN PREDIX 10/31/02... PERDITION - ANTWONE - GANGS* - FAR FROM HEAVEN - CHICAGO
NOVEMBER PREDIX 11/18/02... PERDITION - PIANIST - GANGS* - FAR FROM HEAVEN - CHICAGO
EARLY DEC. PREDIX 12/6/02... PERDITION - HOURS - GANGS* - FAR FROM HEAVEN - CHICAGO
LATE DEC. PREDIX 12/19/02... TWO TOWERS - HOURS - GANGS* - ABOUT SCHMIDT - CHICAGO
EARLY JAN. PREDIX 1/7/03... PIANIST - HOURS - GANGS - ABOUT SCHMIDT - CHICAGO*
LATE JAN. PREDIX 1/20/03... PIANIST - HOURS - GANGS - TWO TOWERS - CHICAGO*
FINAL PREDIX 2/2/03... PIANIST - HOURS - GANGS - TWO TOWERS - CHICAGO*


CHICAGO
ADAPTED S'PLAY
Surely there are
voters who think it's
being overpraised.  
Backlashes sometimes
do occur.
AGAINST IT:
Director Roman
Polanski is in exile,
and the Academy
may want to avoid
controversy.
There are complaints
that the film is too
dour, too depressing,
and too pretentious.  
Will male voters
choose this?
AGAINST IT:
A lot of mild
encouragement, but few
raves.  Its lack of a
decent showing with
SAG may spell trouble.
AGAINST IT:
No Best Director nomination
means it can't win.  Plus, if
voters were to reward "The
Lord of the Rings," it would be
next year for Part 3.
AGAINST IT:
It fulfilled the promise of the
first chapter, and clearly was an
audience favorite as well.  It
may even top "Star Wars" as our
greatest fantasy trilogy.