THE FIVE NOMINEES
1/25/05
Million
Dollar Baby
The Aviator
Sideways
Finding
Neverland
Ray
MIRAMAX
UNIVERSAL
FOR IT
FOR IT
FOR IT
FOR IT
Hollywood
loves movies
about itself,
and this one's
directed by one
of the all-time
greats.  It has
the epic scope
that befits a
Best Picture.
AGAINST IT
AGAINST IT
AGAINST IT
AGAINST IT
AGAINST IT
Though it took
home Best
Picture honors
at the Globes
and PGA,
there's been a
strong, sudden
surge for
"Million Dollar
Baby."
Eastwood's
"Mystic River"
mined similarly
dark territory
last year and
came up
empty in the
Best Picture
race.  Enough
of the guy?
Voters never
listen to critics.
 Plus, despite
all of its
successful
elements, it
feels much
"smaller" than
the
competition.
In the vein of
other "soft"
Miramax
contenders like
"Chocolat" and
"Cider House
Rules," it can't
expect to be
called the best
of the year.
Do people
really like the
film aside from
Jamie Foxx's
astonishing
performance?  
They may
admire it, but
no one's
calling it #1.
6.


7.


8.


9.


10.


11.


12.
HOTEL RWANDA
If only the Oscar season was a little longer...

VERA DRAKE
Mike Leigh got a directing nod, so this may not have been far off.

ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND
A later release date could've helped this gem gain traction.

THE INCREDIBLES
The fact that this cartoon has its own category to win hurt it.

CLOSER
Loved by some, it turned off an equal number.

KINSEY
It needed precursor support that didn't come.

FAHRENHEIT 9/11
This would've been a shock, eliminating red state TV viewers.
MARCH 8
AVIATOR
ALEXANDER
WE DON'T LIVE
PROOF
MOTORCYCLE
APRIL 26
AVIATOR
ALEXANDER
LIFE AQUATIC
PROOF
MOTORCYCLE
JULY 30
AVIATOR
ALEXANDER
LIFE AQUATIC
PROOF
MOTORCYCLE
SEPT 20
AVIATOR
ALEXANDER
LIFE AQUATIC
NEVERLAND
MOTORCYCLE
OCT 16
AVIATOR
ALEXANDER
RAY
NEVERLAND
CLOSER
NOV 9
AVIATOR
ALEXANDER
RAY
NEVERLAND
CLOSER
DEC 4
AVIATOR
SIDEWAYS
RAY
NEVERLAND
CLOSER
DEC 18
AVIATOR
SIDEWAYS
RAY
NEVERLAND
MILLION
JAN 17
AVIATOR
SIDEWAYS
RAY
NEVERLAND
MILLION


WARNER BROS.
MIRAMAX
FOR IT
The film's third
act is an
emotional
punch that will
tug at voters'
heartstrings.  
It's won some
important
precursors like
the DGA.
If AMPAS
voters follow
the critics' lead
"Sideways"
would win,
hands down.  
If "Baby" and
"Aviator" split
votes, it's
within reach.
Surprisingly,
the film won
the NBR Best
Pic award and
has factored
heavily in the
guilds.  It
seems to have
an ardent fan
base
A notable
performance in
an average
film ("A
Beautiful
Mind," "Erin
Brockovich")
can make it a
Best Picture
contender.
FOX
SEARCHLIGHT
The other contenders...
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