| THE FIVE NOMINEES |
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| 1/25/05 |
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| Million Dollar Baby |
The Aviator |
Sideways |
Finding Neverland |
Ray |
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| MIRAMAX |
UNIVERSAL |
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| FOR IT |
FOR IT |
FOR IT |
FOR IT |
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| Hollywood loves movies about itself, and this one's directed by one of the all-time greats. It has the epic scope that befits a Best Picture. |
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| AGAINST IT |
AGAINST IT |
AGAINST IT |
AGAINST IT |
AGAINST IT |
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| Though it took home Best Picture honors at the Globes and PGA, there's been a strong, sudden surge for "Million Dollar Baby." |
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| Eastwood's "Mystic River" mined similarly dark territory last year and came up empty in the Best Picture race. Enough of the guy? |
Voters never listen to critics. Plus, despite all of its successful elements, it feels much "smaller" than the competition. |
In the vein of other "soft" Miramax contenders like "Chocolat" and "Cider House Rules," it can't expect to be called the best of the year. |
Do people really like the film aside from Jamie Foxx's astonishing performance? They may admire it, but no one's calling it #1. |
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| 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. |
HOTEL RWANDA If only the Oscar season was a little longer... VERA DRAKE Mike Leigh got a directing nod, so this may not have been far off. ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND A later release date could've helped this gem gain traction. THE INCREDIBLES The fact that this cartoon has its own category to win hurt it. CLOSER Loved by some, it turned off an equal number. KINSEY It needed precursor support that didn't come. FAHRENHEIT 9/11 This would've been a shock, eliminating red state TV viewers. |
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| MARCH 8 |
AVIATOR |
ALEXANDER |
WE DON'T LIVE |
PROOF |
MOTORCYCLE |
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| APRIL 26 |
AVIATOR |
ALEXANDER |
LIFE AQUATIC |
PROOF |
MOTORCYCLE |
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| JULY 30 |
AVIATOR |
ALEXANDER |
LIFE AQUATIC |
PROOF |
MOTORCYCLE |
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| SEPT 20 |
AVIATOR |
ALEXANDER |
LIFE AQUATIC |
NEVERLAND |
MOTORCYCLE |
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| OCT 16 |
AVIATOR |
ALEXANDER |
RAY |
NEVERLAND |
CLOSER |
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| NOV 9 |
AVIATOR |
ALEXANDER |
RAY |
NEVERLAND |
CLOSER |
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| DEC 4 |
AVIATOR |
SIDEWAYS |
RAY |
NEVERLAND |
CLOSER |
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| DEC 18 |
AVIATOR |
SIDEWAYS |
RAY |
NEVERLAND |
MILLION |
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| JAN 17 |
AVIATOR |
SIDEWAYS |
RAY |
NEVERLAND |
MILLION |
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| WARNER BROS. |
| MIRAMAX |
| FOR IT |
| The film's third act is an emotional punch that will tug at voters' heartstrings. It's won some important precursors like the DGA. |
| If AMPAS voters follow the critics' lead "Sideways" would win, hands down. If "Baby" and "Aviator" split votes, it's within reach. |
| Surprisingly, the film won the NBR Best Pic award and has factored heavily in the guilds. It seems to have an ardent fan base |
| A notable performance in an average film ("A Beautiful Mind," "Erin Brockovich") can make it a Best Picture contender. |

| FOX SEARCHLIGHT |
| The other contenders... |

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| 5 |
| Keeping Track: |