this brief. Jamie Foxx is assured the win. No debate. In the 1999 rematch,
I'll take Hilary Swank over Annette Bening -- purely because "Million Dollar
Baby" is peaking as we speak. (C'mon, who really loves "Being Julia"?) The
supporting categories are a bit tougher. I think that Thomas Haden Church
will prevail over the competition; everyone calling "Sideways" an also-ran is
being a bit premature. And in the night's toughest call, I'll take Virginia
Madsen over Cate Blanchett, since her back-from-the-grave story is an
appealing one for actors who never get decent roles. And since their
ensemble is truly the most interdependent, I say Sideways takes that, too.
light on some surprise inclusions and surprise omissions that might occur.
Remember, it always helps to get nominated by the Golden Globes and
guilds, but it's not 100% necessary. Past nominees like "City of God,"
Djimon Houson of "In America," and Marcia Gay Harden of "Pollock" (who
eventually won the Oscar) went unnoticed by these major groups.
Surprise Inclusions. Best Director is a category that always favors
unheralded greats. Fernando Mereilles ("City of God"), Pedro Almodovar
("Talk to Her"), and David Lynch ("Mulholland Drive") were all seen as
shocks for one reason or another. Perhaps Zhang Yimou ("House of Flying
Daggers") or Michel Gondry ("Eternal Sunshine") will be able to pull off the
trick this year. The acting categories seem pretty locked up, but there's still
murmuring about Clint Eastwood in "Million Dollar Baby" and Peter Sarsgaard
in "Kinsey." Who knows -- if Uma Thurman or Catalina Sandino Moreno
don't get that fifth Best Actress slot, perhaps it will go to Julie Delpy of
"Before Sunset."
Surprise Omissions. "Closer" seems to be heading the list of pre-emptive
snubs; the script wasn't honored by the WGA, and Natalie Portman and Clive
Owen were SAG no-shows. I think directors Marc Forster ("Finding
Neverland") and Taylor Hackford ("Ray") are even likelier also-rans. Even
Kate Winslet ("Eternal Sunshine") seems shaky; how un-Oscary does her
movie feel?
down to three films: "The Aviator," "Sideways," and "Million Dollar Baby."
Some say one will get Screenplay, one will get Director, and one will get
Picture. Could be. But the Globes always throw a few wrenches into normally
solid predictions, so here's what I think will happen on Sunday:
For Best Picture-Drama, it's a close race between the aforementioned "Million
Dollar Baby" and "The Aviator." Though I think Martin Scorsese's pic will be
victorious at the Academy Awards, the HFPA just gave Scorsese an award for
"Gangs of New York" two years ago. Thus I'm boldly predicting Million Dollar
Baby to take the prize, with a concurrent Globe to Clint Eastwood for Best
Director.
The Best Picture-Comedy/Musical is slightly easier. Only three have a real
shot, but two have major drawbacks: "Ray" is neither a musical nor comedy,
and "Eternal Sunshine" is a quirky head-scratcher. Thus, in a no-brainer,
Sideways should claim this prize. It'll probably also take the Best
Screenplay honor, though "Eternal Sunshine" deserves that one too. But
rest assured, it's Sideways.
One acting race is already locked, and we all know who that is: Jamie Foxx
in "Ray." (Start engraving that Oscar now!) For Best
Actress-Musical/Comedy, conventional wisdom says it's Annette Bening's to
lose. But who's seen this film? Is anyone talking about it? She's the least
notable frontrunner for a major award in years, but even Kate Winslet, she
of "Eternal Sunshine" greatness, doesn't seem to be able to topple her.
The two lead acting categories on the drama side, however, are up in the air.
Hilary Swank took home the BFCA award this week, but that was after the
Golden Globe ballots were in. Imelda Staunton stands just as good a
chance to win as Swank, yet her film, like Bening's, has been seen by few.
In a close race, I'll give Hilary Swank the edge, pushing her into another
showdown with Bening for the Oscar. As for the actors, it seems to be a
five-way draw. But judging by the social importance of his pic, Don Cheadle
should win and cement his spot in Oscar's shortlist.
The supporting categories should be a sweep for "Sideways," much how it
was for "Adaptation" in 2002. Virginia Madsen and Thomas Haden Church
will be likely victors over looming runners-up Cate Blanchett and Morgan
Freeman, respectively. I don't know if Oscar voters will agree, though.
As for the rest, it's pointless, but how about The Sea Inside for Best Foreign
Film, Alfie for Best Song, and Finding Neverland for Best Score.
Garner, and Cloris Leachman. (But only Okonedo has a real shot at Oscar.)
Notable omissions: Liam Neeson and the "Kill Bill" (Thurman, Carradine)
and "Closer" (Owen, Portman) duos. The group's choices in the Best Actress
and Actor category could very well be the final Oscar lineup, but I'm still
skeptical of Foxx and Highmore in the Supporting Actor category. And the 6
cast noms keep Best Pic up in the air.
Catalina S. Moreno, Maria Full of Grace
Kate Winslet, Eternal Sunshine
Annette Bening, Being Julia
Imelda Staunton, Vera Drake
Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby
Don Cheadle, Hotel Rwanda
Johnny Depp, Finding Neverland
Jami Foxx, Ray
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Aviator
Paul Giamatti, Sideways
Laura Linney, Kinsey
Virginia Madsen, Sideways
Sophie Okonedo, Hotel Rwanda
Cloris Leachman, Spanglish
Cate Blanchett, The Aviator
Thomas Haden Church, Sideways
Jamie Foxx, Collateral
James Garner, The Notebook
Morgan Freeman, Million Dollar Baby
Freddie Highmore, Finding Neverland
Hotel Rwanda
Ray
Million Dollar Baby
Sideways
The Aviator
Finding Neverland
predictions for the 4 major guilds (Producers, Directors, Writers, and Screen
Actors). Let's start with the PGA. The Producers always seem to throw in one
or two "populist" pictures that have critical support but also fared very well at
the box office. It's understandable -- that's how these people make their
living. Needless to say, "The Incredibles" looks to fill that slot this year, with
the remainder being the usual suspects:
The Aviator
The Incredibles
Sideways
Ray
make it if the PGA decides to squeeze in 6 nominees instead of 5. Either
way, it and "Ray" are the most vulnerable at this point in terms of chances
for a Best Picture berth; only "Aviator," "Sideways," and "Baby" are sure
bets. Now on to the DGA. The Directors, from time to time, tend to throw in
a maverick who's received some modicum of critical acclaim but eventually
fails to make the Oscar shortlist (Christopher Nolan and "Memento" come to
mind). Conversely, they've overlooked people in the past (like Robert
Altman and "Gosford Park") who did go on to get nominated. I'm sensing
that the "maverick" slots go to Bill Condon and Michael Mann (whom I still
feel has no shot at an Oscar):
Michael Mann, Collateral
Alexander Payne, Sideways
Martin Scorsese, The Aviator
Bill Condon, Kinsey
suprising scripts like "Bend It Like Beckham," "Bowling for Columbine," and
"Dirty Pretty Things." That last film, which had been flying under the radar
for most of Oscar season '03, eventually reaped an Academy Award nod due
to the WGA recognition. I'm expecting Michael Moore's "9/11" screenplay to
be this year's shocker, with the rest falling into line as (almost) expected:
Michael Moore, Fahrenheit 9/11
Charlie Kaufman, Eternal Sunshine
Bill Condon, Kinsey
Joshua Marston, Maria Full of Grace
John Logan, The Aviator
Paul Haggis, Million Dollar Baby
Alexander Payne & Jim Taylor, Sideways
David Magee, Finding Neverland
Patrick Marber, Closer
Tod Williams, The Door in the Floor
nominees, like Ethan Hawke in "Training Day" and Keisha Castle-Hughes in
"Whale Rider," can almost completely thank the SAG awards for lifting them
to Oscar nominations. The fields are more depleted than usual this year, so
there really can't be that many surprises. That said, look for a shakeup at
the Best Actor category -- the season's toughest. (And I'm also leaving
Annette Bening off; this is the weakest year for Best Actress since the
"Nell"/"Client"/"Blue Sky" snooze of 1994. Is her performance in "Being
Julia" really the best female one of the year? Is it really better than Julie
Delpy's in "Before Sunset," or Laura Dern's in "We Don't Live Here
Anymore"? Nope.) Here it goes:
Jamie Foxx, Ray
Paul Giamatti, Sideways
Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby
Liam Neeson, Kinsey
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Aviator
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Jamie Foxx, Collateral
David Carradine, Kill Bill Vol. II
Clive Owen, Closer
Morgan Freeman, Million Dollar Baby
Thomas Haden Church, Sideways
CAST ENSEMBLE
Million Dollar Baby
Closer
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Ray
The Aviator
Uma Thurman, Kill Bill Vol. II
Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby
Kate Winslet, Eternal Sunshine
Catalina S. Moreno, Maria Full of Grace
Imelda Staunton, Vera Drake
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Natalie Portman, Closer
Virginia Madsen, Sideways
Meryl Streep, Manchurian Candidate
Cate Blanchett, The Aviator
Laura Linney, Kinsey
time, but here are my predix for the National Society of Film Critics, the last
of the major critics' awards. I'm going with "Eternal Sunshine" because the
NSoFC hates playing catch-up or copycat with its New York and Los Angeles
counterparts, and because "Sunshine" has yet to be fully lauded by a major
group. Cross your fingers; here it goes:
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Best Actor:
Jamie Foxx, Ray
Best Actress:
Uma Thurman, Kill Bill Vol. II
Supporting Actor:
Thomas Haden Church, Sideways
Supporting Actress:
Virginia Madsen, Sideways
Best Director:
Mike Leigh, Vera Drake
Best Screenplay:
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
nearly shut out; the crazy-as-usual Best Drama Actress lineup (with extra
Uma!); and the unexpected "De-Lovely" resurgence (especially by Ashley
Judd). Asterisks denote a correct prediction by me:
PICTURE
The Aviator*
Hotel Rwanda*
Closer
Kinsey*
Finding Neverland*
Million Dollar Baby
ACTOR
Javier Bardem, The Sea Inside
Don Cheadle, Hotel Rwanda*
Liam Neeson, Kinsey*
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Aviator*
Johnny Depp, Finding Neverland*
ACTRESS
Uma Thurman, Kill Bill Vol. II*
Imelda Staunton, Vera Drake*
Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby*
Nicole Kidman, Birth
Scarlett Johansson, A Love Song...
PICTURE
Ray*
Eternal Sunshine*
Phantom of the Opera*
Sideways*
The Incredibles*
ACTOR
Jamie Foxx, Ray*
Jim Carrey, Eternal Sunshine*
Kevin Spacey, Beyond the Sea*
Paul Giamatti, Sideways*
Kevin Kline, De-Lovely
ACTRESS
Annette Bening, Being Julia*
Kate Winslet, Eternal Sunshine*
Ashley Judd, De-Lovely
Renee Zellweger, Bridget Jones 2
Emmy Rossum, Phantom of the Opera*
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Jamie Foxx, Collateral*
Thomas Haden Church, Sideways*
David Carradine, Kill Bill Vol. II*
Morgan Freeman, Million Dollar Baby
Clive Owen, Closer*
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Virginia Madsen, Sideways*
Meryl Streep, Manchurian Candidate
Natalie Portman, Closer*
Laura Linney, Kinsey*
Cate Blanchett, The Aviator*
SONG
Shrek 2
The Polar Express
Alfie
Hotel Rwanda
Phantom of the Opera
FOREIGN
Les Choristes
House of Flying Daggers
The Motorcycle Diaries
A Very Long Engagement
The Sea Inside
Martin Scorsese, The Aviator*
Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby
Marc Forster, Finding Neverland*
Alexander Payne, Sideways*
Mike Nichols, Closer
SCREENPLAY
Eternal Sunshine*
Sideways*
Finding Neverland
Closer
The Aviator*
SCORE
Spanglish
Finding Neverland
Sideways
The Aviator
Million Dollar Baby
guessed Best Pic and Best Actor correctly, and it's also worth noting that their
runner-up for Best Supporting Actress was none other than Cate Blanchett in
"Coffee & Cigarettes," which I promoted months ago in this article. There
seem to be many trends appearing just one week into Precursor Season:
Thomas Haden Church in "Sideways," breakthrough awards for "Maria Full of
Grace," screenplay recognition for "Eternal Sunshine," and animated giant
"The Incredibles." All but the last pic seem like very likely nominees that
won't end up winning Oscars since critics don't vote.
that it was next Saturday.) Anyhow, the most obvious choice here is
"Sideways" for three reasons: the group has shown love to Alexander Payne
in the past ("About Schmidt" won it in 2002), the film is set in California
(remember, the Boston critics chose "Mystic River" last year), and it's
indie-but-not-too-indie. Otherwise, expect some surprises, but nothing too
far out there. (As a side note, the Broadcast Film Critics announced their
nominations today, but they have too many categories and contenders to
make analyzing the list worthwhile.) On to Los Angeles:
Sideways
Best Actor:
Liam Neeson, Kinsey
Best Actress:
Kate Winslet, Eternal Sunshine
Supporting Actor:
David Carradine, Kill Bill Vol. II
Supporting Actress:
Natalie Portman, Closer
Best Director:
Michael Mann, Collateral
Best Screenplay:
Eternal Sunshine
precursors and the AFI Top 10.) First, let's get to the Golden Globes. This
sees to be a strong year in the Musical/Comedy category, as most of the
likely contenders are also legitimate Oscar wannabes. Conversely, there
isn't much room for surprise -- another result of this relatively weak year in
film. So here go the predictions in the major categories (you can pick Best
Score yourself), with the caveat that enough voters probably haven't seen
"Spanglish" or "Million Dollar Baby" for them to make a significant impact:
PICTURE
Ray
Eternal Sunshine
Phantom of the Opera
Sideways
The Incredibles
ACTOR
Jamie Foxx, Ray
Jim Carrey, Eternal Sunshine
Kevin Spacey, Beyond the Sea
Paul Giamatti, Sideways
Bill Murray, The Life Aquatic
ACTRESS
Annette Bening, Being Julia
Kate Winslet, Eternal Sunshine
Jennifer Garner, 13 Going on 30
Tea Leoni, Spanglish
Emmy Rossum, Phantom of the Opera
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Jamie Foxx, Collateral
Thomas Haden Church, Sideways
David Carradine, Kill Bill Vol. II
Freddie Highmore, Finding Neverland
Clive Owen, Closer
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Virginia Madsen, Sideways
Kate Winslet, Finding Neverland
Natalie Portman, Closer
Laura Linney, Kinsey
Cate Blanchett, The Aviator
Martin Scorsese, The Aviator
Michael Mann, Collateral
Marc Forster, Finding Neverland
Alexander Payne, Sideways
Bill Condon, Kinsey
SCREENPLAY
Eternal Sunshine
Sideways
Kinsey
Vera Drake
The Aviator
Globes are where the precursor train ends for it, but the HFPA loves
showering awards on huge stars like Cruise. Now we move on to the New
York Film Critics, a group slightly more esoteric than their L.A. counterparts,
but not quite as lefty as the National Society of Film Critics. This is the last
time I'm predicting "Eternal Sunshine" for a major award, because if it
doesn't happen now, it never will:
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Best Actor:
Jamie Foxx, Ray
Best Actress:
Imelda Staunton, Vera Drake
Supporting Actor:
David Carradine, Kill Bill Vol. II
Supporting Actress:
Virginia Madsen, Sideways
Best Director:
Alexander Payne, Sideways
Best Screenplay:
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
be a bad omen for my favorite film of the year. (I was 7/10 overall, though,
getting #7 and #8 right completely!) Other NBR surprises were no "Phantom
of the Opera" (though Emmy Rossum did snag the breakthrough female
award) and Michael Mann's Best Director award for "Collateral," a film that
most people already (and rightfully) wrote off. The NBR also seemed, more
than ever this year, to want to reward every single filmic triumph of the year,
thus a career award for Jeff Bridges (because they couldn't squeeze in "The
Door in the Floor" anywhere else) and a really, really long list of films worth
"mentioning" (on which "Eternal Sunshine" did place). Here's a rundown of
the top awards, and don't forget to check the ongoing Precursor Chart as the
season wears on:
2. The Aviator
3. Closer
4. Million Dollar Baby
5. Sideways
6. Kinsey
7. Vera Drake
8. Ray
9. Collateral
10. Hotel Rwanda
Foreign:
1. The Sea Inside
2. Bad Education
3. Maria Full of Grace
4. Les Choristes
5. The Motorcycle Diaries
Documentary:
1. Born Into Brothels
2. Z Channel: A Magnificent Obsession
3. Paper Clips
4. Super Size Me
5. Story of the Weeping Camel
Jamie Foxx, Ray
Best Actress:
Annette Bening, Being Julia
Supporting Actor:
Thomas Haden Church, Sideways
Supporting Actress:
Laura Linney, Kinsey
Best Director:
Michael Mann, Collateral
Best Screenplay (original/adapted):
Eternal Sunshine/Sideways
Animated: The Incredibles
Director Debut: Zach Braff
Male Breakthrough: Topher Grace
Female Breakthrough: Emmy Rossum
Ensemble: Closer
Career Achievement: Jeff Bridges
Special Award: Clint Eastwood
Freedom of Expression:
1. Fahrenheit 9/11
2. The Passion of the Christ
3. Conspiracy of Silence
publish a full list because the nods rarely influence the Oscars (you can see
them here if you want). Notable, though, was the strong showing by
"Sideways," which is gaining momentum heading into tomorrow's NBR
announcement and next week's critics awards. The common superstition is
that if a movie wins at IFP, it loses at Oscar -- though that didn't hold true
last year with Charlie Theron's dual victories.
across multiple categories occur, and there are always entries (like "Ocean's
Eleven" in 2001) that have no shot in hell of being nominated for top
Oscars. That said, this unusually light year for decent cinema allows for any
number of sneak attacks at the precursors. I'm betting that "Eternal
Sunshine" (cerebral, but -- wink, wink -- well-remembered) will take the
cake. "Sideways" and "Kinsey" seem like sure bets, too -- and if Bill
Condon's ball is gonna get rolling, it'll probably start here. I'm still
unconvinced that "Phantom of the Opera" will be a major player, but since it
seems like everyone else is against me in this regard, we'll see how well it
does. My NBR predictions are thus:
2. Kinsey
3. Phantom of the Opera
4. Sideways
5. Closer
6. Finding Neverland
7. Vera Drake
8. Ray
9. The Life Aquatic With Steve Zissou
10. The Aviator
Liam Neeson, Kinsey
Best Actress:
Kate Winslet, Eternal Sunshine...
Supporting Actor:
Morgan Freeman, Million Dollar Baby
Supporting Actress:
Natalie Portman, Closer
Best Director:
Bill Condon, Kinsey
Best Screenplay:
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
